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A New Year and a
New Market for Victoria Real Estate
2018
is a year that will be remembered by many as the year the
Victoria Market crashed. However, the reality is that it is the
year Victoria returned to a normal market ending an
unprecedented and unsustainable period of huge price increases.
The most mentioned statistic will be that sales volume dropped
more than 20% from 2017. Of more importance is the graph to the
right that shows the change in prices in various categories &
areas from one year ago. They all show price increases. Not the
kind of increases we saw in 2017, but there are no decreases in
our average price indexes.
It is easy to blame the market changes on government policies,
interest rates, etc. In the end our market, or any market is not
able maintain the huge volume of sales combined with yearly
double digit price increases indefinitely. Victoria is still the
best place to live and our unique market is not and will not be
seeing large price adjustments that Vancouver & Toronto are
experiencing.
2019
inventories should continue to be much higher than 2017. Things
that effected 2018 like the government introduced stress test,
vacancy & foreign buyers taxes, rising interest rates, etc. will
be old news and accepted as market facts. There is pent up
demand and there are lots of home owners ready to sell. The
reality that buyers have less
money available coupled with the sellers realization that their
expectations have to be tempered, should lead to a steady more
balanced market in 2019.
Last year I felt we could have price increases in the 10% range
but we were in the 5% range this year thanks to government
interference. If the government keeps their hands off, we should
see a 3-5% rise in prices by the end of the year.
Please feel free to call or email with any Real Estate
questions.
250-588-6169 or Phil@MyVictoria.ca
Happy New Year,
Philip Illingworth
Full Report & Graphs
My 2019 Calendar
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The
Cotswold
Way
This fall's trip to the UK included
an 8 day walk along the Cotswold Way. 102 miles from Chipping
Campton to Bath.
https://www.nationaltrail.co.uk/cotswold-way Like last
year our luggage was move along and all we had to do was walk
and find the best pub for lunch. The biggest difference
this year was the weather. Rain, 4 days of rain at the
start of the trip. An those were the longest and hilliest
days. It did not rain all day and it made the last 4 sunny
days all the more enjoyable. I love blue skies in my
calendar photos so all photos are from the last 4 days of the
trip.
I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the
trips. If you did not get a 2019 year and would like one of
these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or
email.
I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post
but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more
time! “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing
more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the
photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas. Simply
visit
http://myvictoria.ca/2019/ and share my travels.
Have a great New Year,
Philip Illingworth
Victoria
Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up
Annual
Victoria rental market published. The vacancy rate is
virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.
The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and
higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has
placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased
as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in
supply.
Details
Philip Illingworth
Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of February 2019 - We
are definitely settling into a balanced Market.
Almost a Buyers' market but the low inventory should keep us in a
balanced market for 2019. Prices have remained stable with homes
that Buyers perceived
as overpriced just sitting on the market.
This chart tracks the ratio
of total residential sales over total active residential
listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.
The active listing count
and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing
supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them
can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is
downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where
there is upward pressure on prices.
- below 10%, there is
downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)
- above 25%, there is
upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)
- in the 15-20% range,
there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)
Please call with any real
estate questions.
Philip Illingworth
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Victoria Real Estate Board
Victoria real estate
market awaits a spring thaw
March
1, 2019 Victoria BC - A total of 421 properties sold in the
Victoria Real Estate Board region this February, 22.8 per cent fewer
than the 545 properties sold in February 2018 but a 28 per cent
increase from January 2019. Sales of condominiums were down 25.9 per
cent from February 2018 with 129 units sold but were up from January
2019 by 16.2 per cent. Sales of single family homes were down 15.8
per cent from February 2018 with 219 sold.
"Buyers and sellers appear to
be looking at the current real estate market from different
perspectives," says Victoria Real Estate Board President Cheryl
Woolley. "Buyers are hoping to see reductions in prices because
governments have told the public that policies like the mortgage
stress test and the speculation tax will improve affordability.
However, the actual result of some of these policies seems to have
softened the higher priced end of the market and increased
competition for properties at the lower priced end. Conversely,
sellers may be holding out to see if prices increase in the spring,
and those hoping to up-size may be unable to qualify for the funds
needed to move up because of the stress test."
There were 2,131 active
listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing
Service® at the end of February 2019, an increase of 3.6 per cent
compared to the month of January and a 37.9 per cent increase from
the 1,545 active listings for sale at the end of February 2018.
The Multiple Listing Service®
Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the
Victoria Core in February 2018 was $848,600. The benchmark value for
the same home in February 2019 decreased by 0.3 per cent to
$845,900, lower than January's value of $847,800. The MLS® HPI
benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in
February 2018 was $483,700 while the benchmark value for the same
condominium in February 2019 increased by 3.9 per cent to $502,800,
slightly higher than January's value of $499,700.
"Local REALTORS® continue to
be very busy showing listings, so demand is evident in the greater
Victoria area," adds President Woolley. "Currently, we still have
very low inventory compared to the long-term average with little
having come into the market this past month. As the spring thaw
comes, there's a good chance more listings will come onto the market
which will create more options for prospective buyers. Homes in
sought-after areas and those that are lower priced remain in high
demand. Now is a good time to connect with your Realtor to discuss
your goals and how to navigate the current market."
About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and
since that time has been a key player in the development of
standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the
professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of
the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last
century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those
working in the real estate industry.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our
Statistics
The use of sale price
statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a
period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate
Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the
actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific
information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
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B.C. Real Estate Association |
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Housing Market Adjusts
to Mortgage Stress Test
Vancouver, BC – February 25, 2019
The British Columbia
Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 First Quarter
Housing Forecast
Update today. Multiple Listing Service®(MLS®) residential sales in
the province are forecast to increase 2 per cent to 80,000 units
this year, after recording 78,345 residential sales in 2018.
MLS®residential sales are forecast to increase a further 6.9 per
cent to 85,500 units in 2020. The 10-year average for
MLS®residential sales in the province is 85,800 units. “The negative
shock to affordability and purchasing power created by the B20
stress test on mortgage borrowers is expected to continue
constraining housing demand in the province this year,” said Cameron
Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Favourable demographics along with
continuing strong performance of the BC economy is expected to
underpin housing demand over the next two years.” The policy-induced
demand shock has contributed to an increase of the inventory of
homes for sale in most regions of the province. As a result, market
conditions are expected to provide little upward pressure on home
prices this year, with the average annual residential price forecast
to remain essentially unchanged, albeit up 0.5 per cent to $716,100.
Modest improvement in consumer demand is expected to unfold over the
next two years as households further adjust to the mortgage stress
test.
See full detail by area
Policy-Induced Housing
Slowdown Continues in 2019
Vancouver, BC – February 15, 2019
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a
total of 3,546 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple
Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, a decline of 33.2 per cent from
the same month last year.
 The
average MLS® residential price in the province was $665,590, a
decline of 7.7 per cent from January 2018. Total sales dollar volume
was $2.36 billion, a 38.4 per cent decline from the same month last
year.
“BC households continue
to grapple with the policy induced affordability shock created
last year by the federal government,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA
Chief Economist. “The resulting pullback in consumer demand is
largely responsible for January’s lacklustre performance.”
Total MLS® residential active
listings increased 41.2 per cent to 29,522 units compared to the
same month last year. The ratio of sales to active residential
listings declined from 25.4 per cent to 12 per cent over the same
period.
“Many BC regions are now
exhibiting buyer’s market conditions,” added Muir. “However, BC
Northern, the Kootenay, Okanagan Mainline and the Vancouver Island
markets continue to reflect balance between supply and demand.”
Mortgage Rate Forecast
- March 2018
Vancouver, BC –December 2018
The Highlights:
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Oil prices prompt plunging bond
yields
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Canadian economy slowing down
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How high can they go? Is the
Bank of Canada already finished with rate increases?
Some questions and comments
about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist,
cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca; Brendon
Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist,
bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca.
Full Details
Housing Market Reacts
to Mortgage Stress Test
Vancouver, BC –November 8, 2018
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its
2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service®
(MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline
23 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 103,768
residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales
 are
forecast to increase 12 per cent to 89,500 units in 2019. The
10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is
84,800 units.
“The marked erosion of
affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress
test and rising interest rates continue to be a drag on the
housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.
“However, continuing strong performance in the economy combined
with favourable demographics is expected to push home sales above
their 10-year average in 2019.”
Despite the mortgage policy
drag on the sector, strong performance of the BC economy continues
to be highly supportive of housing demand. Five consecutive years
of above trend growth in the province has led to a high level of
employment and an unemployment rate that appears to be at a
cyclical low.
The combination of fewer home
sales and a larger inventory of homes for sale has helped trend
most markets to balanced conditions. As a result, home price
growth has slowed considerably, and is expected to more closely
reflect overall consumer price inflation through 2019. In
addition, a record number of homes are under construction in BC,
which will provide for much needed expansion of the housing stock
and greater price stability.
Full Details
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation |
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