Monthly Real Estate Update

Philip Illingworth
Victoria
British Columbia

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Oak Bay "mobile" homes on the way to San Juan Island     

Month-to-Date Victoria Market Statistics

December 10,  2018

 

Month to Date
December 2018
End of
December 2017
Net Unconditional Sales: 129 462
New Listings: 158 441
Active Listings: 2,211 1,378

Left Column: stats so far this month.  Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year.
*This will be updated weekly at www.AllVictoriaBCRealEstate.com & www.MyVictoria.ca

 

MyVictoria Report  

November 8, 2018


An Unfamiliar Victoria Real Estate Market

Government imposed stress tests for mortgages, higher interest rates, speculation & vacant house taxes and seasonal changes are combining to slow the our real estate market.  But we need to look closely at what a slower market means to Victoria.

  1. The most quoted figure is volume of sales.  We are definably down in sales numbers. 10%  to 15% in recent months compared to 2017.

  2. We are seeing homes on the market longer and lots of price reduction.  It is easy to conclude that prices are also down 10% or 15%.  But that is not the case.  On average the original listing  prices of homes are higher than last year but the homes are selling close to 2017 prices.  Month to month for October 2018 the benchmark house price is up 6.1% and benchmark condo prices are up 9.8% compared to October 2017.

Sales number will continue to be lower than 2017 with prices stable or down a little.  By the time the spring market gets here buyers will have adjusted to the new rules & higher interest rates and we should see things pick up. We are not a large market but we are the best place in Canada to live and there will always be enough newcomers to keep our prices relatively stable.

Full Report & Graphs

My 2019 Calendar - The Cotswold Way


 
       


This fall's trip to the UK included an 8 day walk along the Cotswold Way. 102 miles from Chipping Campton to Bath. https://www.nationaltrail.co.uk/cotswold-way  Like last year our luggage was move along and all we had to do was walk and find the best pub for lunch.  The biggest difference this year was the weather.  Rain, 4 days of rain at the start of the trip.  An those were the longest and hilliest days.  It did not rain all day and it made the last 4 sunny days all the more enjoyable.  I love blue skies in my calendar photos so all photos are from the last 4 days of the trip.


I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the trips. If you did not get a 2019 year and would like one of these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or email.

I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more time!  “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas.  Simply visit http://myvictoria.ca/2019/ and share my travels.

Have a great New Year,

Philip Illingworth


 

                                     Victoria Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up

Annual Victoria rental market published.  The vacancy rate is virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.  The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in supply.  Details

Philip Illingworth

 

Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of November 2018 - We are definitely settling into a balanced Market. Sales volume continues to slide while new listing volume has peaked. Prices have remained stable with homes Buyers perceived as overpriced just sitting on the market.

This chart tracks the ratio of total residential sales over total active residential listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.

The active listing count and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where there is upward pressure on prices.

- below 10%, there is downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)

- above 25%, there is upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)

- in the 15-20% range, there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)

Please call with any real estate questions.

Philip Illingworth

 

                                 Victoria Real Estate Board

 

The Victoria Real Estate Market Chills Out For Winter

December 3, 2018 Victoria BC - A total of 498 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this November, 25.8 per cent fewer than the 671 properties sold in November of last year and a 16.7 per cent decrease from October 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 30.9 per cent from last year in November with 152 units sold. Sales of single family homes were down 20.8 per cent from 2017 with 267 sold this November.

“We certainly anticipated a difference this year in terms of sales for November compared to last year,” says Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. “This time last year, the government announced plans to change mortgage lending qualification rules and our market saw a rush of activity as buyers tried to beat that new lending criteria which was rolled out January first. Our ten-year average of units sold for the month of November is 515, which is likely a better comparison than to the unusual market conditions we saw last year.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in November 2017 was $832,800, while the benchmark value for the same home in November 2018 increased by 3.9 per cent to $865,200, lower than October's value of $881,000. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in November 2017 was $456,200, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in November 2018 increased by 9.7 per cent to $500,500, slightly less than October's value of $502,600.

There were a total of 2,343 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of November 2018, an increase of 32.8 per cent compared to November 2017 but 6.7 per cent fewer than the month previous.

“Inventory continues to be low compared to historic averages,” adds President Kerr. “The ten-year average for active inventory in November is 3,204, so although it has improved compared to last year, we are still low on choice for buyers. At the same time, waning demand has meant that there is less urgency in our market right now, which can benefit buyers and sellers. The market tends to naturally slow down in the winter, so I’d expect we will have a more balanced market heading into the new year.”

About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and since that time has been a key player in the development of standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those working in the real estate industry.
 

View our press release and summary here.

View our complete statistical package here.

Notes for Interpreting Our Statistics

The use of sale price statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.

                                 

               

 

  B.C. Real Estate Association

 

Balanced Conditions Prevail in B.C. Housing Market

Vancouver, BC – November 14, 2018   The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,405 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in October, down 26.2 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $690,161, a decline of 4.1 per cent from October 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $4.2 billion, a 29.3 per cent decline from October 2017. 

“The BC housing market continued to grapple with tougher mortgage qualifications in October,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, more moderate consumer demand has led to a much-needed increase in the supply of homes for sale.”

Total active residential listings were up nearly 30 per cent to 36,195 units in October, compared to the same month last year. While the BC housing market exhibited balanced conditions overall in October, market conditions do vary between regions and by product type.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 22.1 per cent to $49.7 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales decreased 22.8 per cent to 69,664 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 1 per cent to $713,662.

 

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast - March 2018

Vancouver, BC –March 2018  

The Highlights:

  • Mortgages rates returning to long-run level

  • B20 stress test prompts slow start to 2018 for the Canadian economy

  • Trump trade tantrum may delay Bank of Canada  tightening

Some questions and comments about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist, cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca; Brendon Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist, bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca.

Full Details

 

 

Housing Market Reacts to Mortgage Stress Test

Vancouver, BC –November 8, 2018   The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 23 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 103,768 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 12 per cent to 89,500 units in 2019. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.

“The marked erosion of affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress test and rising interest rates continue to be a drag on the housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, continuing strong performance in the economy combined with favourable demographics is expected to push home sales above their 10-year average in 2019.”

Despite the mortgage policy drag on the sector, strong performance of the BC economy continues to be highly supportive of housing demand. Five consecutive years of above trend growth in the province has led to a high level of employment and an unemployment rate that appears to be at a cyclical low.

The combination of fewer home sales and a larger inventory of homes for sale has helped trend most markets to balanced conditions. As a result, home price growth has slowed considerably, and is expected to more closely reflect overall consumer price inflation through 2019. In addition, a record number of homes are under construction in BC, which will provide for much needed expansion of the housing stock and greater price stability.

 

Full Details

 

 

 

 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 
 

More Market Information:

 


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Philip Illingworth
DFH Real Estate Ltd.
Phone        250-477-7291
Toll Free    800-668-2272
Web  www.MyVictoria.ca

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