Victoria Real Estate Market
imposed stress tests for mortgages, higher interest rates,
speculation & vacant house taxes and seasonal changes are
combining to slow the our real estate market. But we need
to look closely at what a slower market means to Victoria.
The most quoted
figure is volume of sales. We are definably down in sales
numbers. 10% to 15% in recent months compared to 2017.
We are seeing
homes on the market longer and lots of price reduction. It
is easy to conclude that prices are also down 10% or 15%.
But that is not the case. On average the original listing
prices of homes are higher than last year but the homes are
selling close to 2017 prices. Month to month for October
2018 the benchmark house price is up 6.1% and benchmark condo
prices are up 9.8% compared to October 2017.
will continue to be lower than 2017 with prices stable or down a
little. By the time the spring market gets here buyers
will have adjusted to the new rules & higher interest rates and
we should see things pick up. We are not a large
market but we are the best place in Canada to live and there
will always be enough newcomers to keep our prices relatively stable.
Full Report & Graphs
My 2019 Calendar
This fall's trip to the UK included
an 8 day walk along the Cotswold Way. 102 miles from Chipping
Campton to Bath.
https://www.nationaltrail.co.uk/cotswold-way Like last
year our luggage was move along and all we had to do was walk
and find the best pub for lunch. The biggest difference
this year was the weather. Rain, 4 days of rain at the
start of the trip. An those were the longest and hilliest
days. It did not rain all day and it made the last 4 sunny
days all the more enjoyable. I love blue skies in my
calendar photos so all photos are from the last 4 days of the
I enjoyed making this year’s calendar as if lets me re-live the
trips. If you did not get a 2019 year and would like one of
these hand make calendars of my travel photos please call or
I'm not sure if anyone looked at the additional photos I post
but I enjoyed doing it and re-living the experiences one more
time! “Every Picture Tells a Story” is my way of sharing
more than just the calendar photos from my travels. Maybe the
photos will inspire you to visit one of the areas. Simply
http://myvictoria.ca/2019/ and share my travels.
Have a great New Year,
Vacancy Rates flat but Rents Up
Victoria rental market published. The vacancy rate is
virtually unchanged but the average rental price is up 7.7%.
The inner areas of the city show below average vacancy rates and
higher rental prices. The shift away from home ownership has
placed strong demand on the rental supply. Rents have increased
as a result of strong demand without a proportional increase in
Sales to Active Listing Ratio to end of November 2018 - We
are definitely settling into a balanced Market.
Sales volume continues to slide while new listing volume has
peaked. Prices have remained stable with homes Buyers perceived
as overpriced just sitting on the market.
This chart tracks the ratio
of total residential sales over total active residential
listings at month-end for each of the last 25 months.
The active listing count
and the sales count can be viewed as indicators of housing
supply and demand respectively. Observing the ratio between them
can thus help indicate a "buyers' market", where there is
downward pressure on prices, and a "sellers' market", where
there is upward pressure on prices.
- below 10%, there is
downward pressure on prices (buyers' market)
- above 25%, there is
upward pressure on prices (sellers' market)
- in the 15-20% range,
there is little pressure on prices either way (balanced market)
Please call with any real
Victoria Real Estate Board
The Victoria Real Estate Market
Chills Out For Winter
3, 2018 Victoria BC
- A total of 498 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board
region this November, 25.8 per cent fewer than the 671 properties
sold in November of last year and a 16.7 per cent decrease from
October 2018. Sales of condominiums were down 30.9 per cent from
last year in November with 152 units sold. Sales of single family
homes were down 20.8 per cent from 2017 with 267 sold this November.
“We certainly anticipated a
difference this year in terms of sales for November compared to last
year,” says Victoria Real Estate Board President Kyle Kerr. “This
time last year, the government announced plans to change mortgage
lending qualification rules and our market saw a rush of activity as
buyers tried to beat that new lending criteria which was rolled out
January first. Our ten-year average of units sold for the month of
November is 515, which is likely a better comparison than to the
unusual market conditions we saw last year.”
The Multiple Listing Service®
Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the
Victoria Core in November 2017 was $832,800, while the benchmark
value for the same home in November 2018 increased by 3.9 per cent
to $865,200, lower than October's value of $881,000. The MLS® HPI
benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in
November 2017 was $456,200, while the benchmark value for the same
condominium in November 2018 increased by 9.7 per cent to $500,500,
slightly less than October's value of $502,600.
There were a total of 2,343
active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple
Listing Service® at the end of November 2018, an increase of 32.8
per cent compared to November 2017 but 6.7 per cent fewer than the
“Inventory continues to be low
compared to historic averages,” adds President Kerr. “The ten-year
average for active inventory in November is 3,204, so although it
has improved compared to last year, we are still low on choice for
buyers. At the same time, waning demand has meant that there is less
urgency in our market right now, which can benefit buyers and
sellers. The market tends to naturally slow down in the winter, so
I’d expect we will have a more balanced market heading into the new
About VREB - The Victoria Real Estate Board was founded in 1921 and
since that time has been a key player in the development of
standards and innovative programs aimed at enhancing the
professionalism and community standing of REALTORS®. Formation of
the Board grew out of the realization in the early part of the last
century that there was a need to establish basic standards for those
working in the real estate industry.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our
The use of sale price
statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a
period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate
Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the
actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific
information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
B.C. Real Estate Association
Prevail in B.C. Housing Market
Vancouver, BC – November 14, 2018
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a
total of 6,405 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple
Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in October, down 26.2
per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential
price in BC was $690,161, a decline of 4.1 per cent from October
2017. Total sales dollar volume was $4.2 billion, a 29.3 per cent
decline from October 2017.
“The BC housing market
continued to grapple with tougher mortgage qualifications in
October,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, more
moderate consumer demand has led to a much-needed increase in the
supply of homes for sale.”
Total active residential
listings were up nearly 30 per cent to 36,195 units in October,
compared to the same month last year. While the BC housing market
exhibited balanced conditions overall in October, market
conditions do vary between regions and by product type.
Year-to-date, BC residential
sales dollar volume was down 22.1 per cent to $49.7 billion,
compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales
decreased 22.8 per cent to 69,664 units, while the average MLS®
residential price was up 1 per cent to $713,662.
Mortgage Rate Forecast
- March 2018
Vancouver, BC –March 2018
Mortgages rates returning to
B20 stress test prompts slow
start to 2018 for the Canadian economy
Trump trade tantrum may delay
Bank of Canada tightening
Some questions and comments
about Mortgage Rate Forecast to: Cameron Muir, Chief Economist,
Ogmundson, Deputy Chief Economist,
Housing Market Reacts
to Mortgage Stress Test
Vancouver, BC –November 8, 2018
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its
2018 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service®
(MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline
23 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 103,768
residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales
forecast to increase 12 per cent to 89,500 units in 2019. The
10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is
“The marked erosion of
affordability and purchasing power caused by the mortgage stress
test and rising interest rates continue to be a drag on the
housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.
“However, continuing strong performance in the economy combined
with favourable demographics is expected to push home sales above
their 10-year average in 2019.”
Despite the mortgage policy
drag on the sector, strong performance of the BC economy continues
to be highly supportive of housing demand. Five consecutive years
of above trend growth in the province has led to a high level of
employment and an unemployment rate that appears to be at a
The combination of fewer home
sales and a larger inventory of homes for sale has helped trend
most markets to balanced conditions. As a result, home price
growth has slowed considerably, and is expected to more closely
reflect overall consumer price inflation through 2019. In
addition, a record number of homes are under construction in BC,
which will provide for much needed expansion of the housing stock
and greater price stability.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation